Saturday, February 27, 2010

D2 State Preview

Just like the past few years the winner of division two will come out of the southeast sectional. There are three very good teams in the Germantown Sectional. Port Washington, Catholic Memorial, and Wisconsin Lutheran all have equal chances to win state and honestly These are the top three teams with chance to win state and I really don't see another team that will challenge them. All three teams have proven themselves against the top D1 and D2 competition all year long.

Durand Sectional
Favorite
Onalaska- Won a conference that is full of D1 teams. Have one of the top post players in the state in 6'8 sophomore Nick Arenz.

Contenders
Northwestern- Final four team a year ago lost their top player but, still have 6'8 Donnie Hissa leading the way.

Darkhorse
Rice Lake- Plays in a D1 conference and have Wally Ellenson.

Green Bay West Sectional
Favorite
Waupun- High scoring team that is led by a high scoring senior Austin Armga.

Contenders
Seymour- Appear to be back to the Seymour of old and have a very strong junior class may be a year away from a return trip to state though.
Valders- Very disciplined team that rebounds very well and plays exceptionally well as a team.

Darkhorse
Oconto- Has a very good record and one of the top players in D2.

Waunakee Sectional
Favorite
Monroe- Appear to be headed back to state. Have very good guards as always but, have some nice size to mix with their outside shooting.

Contender
River Valley- My preseason pick to get to state. Bring back top two scorers from a year ago.
Prairie du Chien- Don't know much about them but, they were wishoops preseason pick to get to state.
Portage- Many people think they are the favorite. Play in a fairly strong Badger North conference.

Darkhorse
Madison Edgewood- Team that always seems to play tough and very hard and have battled Monroe very tough twice.

Germantown Sectional
Favorite
Wisconsin Lutheran- Have only lost three games this year. Twice to out of state teams and once in an upset to D1 Nicolet.

Contender
Catholic Memorial- Won one of the bests conferences in the state including one of the D1 favorites in Arrowhead who they defeated twice. Lost only twice to D3 power Dominican and Wisconsin Lutheran by one.
Port Washington- Another team that resides in one of the toughest conferences and has done very well. Josh Gasser is a top five player in the state.

Darkhorse
Whitefish Bay- Has already beaten Port Washington once this year and is battle tested in the conference.

Waupun over Onalaska- Waupun is a higher scoring team and is more battled tested. Honestly Onalaska would be here because of a weak sectional.
Wisconsin Lutheran over Monroe- Flavian Davis is a top five player in the state and Monroe has no one to guard him.

Wisconsin Lutheran over Waupun- Lutheran is battled tested and is more prepared for a title run. They are also the defending state champs.

As you can see I expect to see a back to back state champion in Wisconsin Lutheran and like I said earlier I only see two other choices in Catholic Memorial and Port Washington.

Friday, February 26, 2010

D3 state predicitons

Division three has become known as the private division due to the fact that private schools have pretty much dominated the division since they joined up with the WIAA. This year may be different as their are some very tough public school D3's out there. Fall Creek was in the final four a year ago and bring back everyone aside from an injured point guard. Cuba City is ranked #1 and have the top player in D3 in Evan Richard. Blair Taylor was at state a year ago for D4 and bring back everyone and Brillon is another very good team. My picks will be favorite (team picked to get to state), contender (team that good just as easily make state), and darhorse (team that could make a run and get to state if things fall right).

Eau Claire North Sectional
Favorite
Fall Creek- One of the favorites all year long and bring back all their starters from a final four team from a year ago, with the exception of their injured point guard.

Contenders
Eau Claire Regis- Have a very solid starting five led by three great players in Connor Miller, Adam Ganske, and Jack Eaton. Ganske is a four year starter and Eaton three year.
Hurley- One of the highest scoring teams in the state and led by high scoring Daulton Levra.

Ashwaubenon Sectional
Favorite
Roncalli- Bring back a ton of guys from their final four team. Shoot the three extremely well and move very very well without the ball.

Contender
Brillon- State pick before the year started and played Roncalli to the wire twice.

Darkhorse
Marathon- Undefeated team so they must be good. Just don't think they've played the greatest competition.

Baraboo Sectional
Cuba City- Undefeated and #1 ranked team. They have the best D3 player in the state in Evan Richard.

Contender
Aquinas- Play in a D1 conference where they took second place.
Blair Taylor- Final four team a year ago in D4 and bring back just about everyone.

Darkhorse
Whitehall- Split with Blair Taylor in the regular season and got the 2 seed.

West Allis Central
Favorite
Dominican- Benefit from one of the toughest schedules in the state and split with St. Cats during regular season.

Contender
Racine St. Cats- Also had a very tough schedule like Dominican and split with them.

Darkhorse
Brookfield Academy- Played with Dominican and St. Cats in the same conference and should be battled tested.
Oostburg- Always tough team should make some noise come tournament time.

Fall Creek over Roncalli- Fall Creek has more balance and Roncalli relies on the three point shot and that will fail them eventually.
Dominican over Cuba City- Dominican with too much speed and athleticism.

Dominican over Fall Creek- Dominican will be battle tested at this point and have athleticism advantage.

Despite the fact that the public schools will make a good push I think the privates will come out on top again. As far as my percentages though I give Dominican 40% chance, Cuba City 40%, Falls Creek 20%, and St. Cats 20% chance. Looking at those numbers I'm not completely sure on who will win state.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

D4 state predictions

Normally I would do my player rankings at this time but, since the state tournament will be starting in less then a week. Typically I would start with D1 and go down but, since the big Madison Memorial vs Madison East game is tonight I will be going the opposite direction so I will know the outcome of that game close. Will also try to see if I can get the game on the net. Well here are my predictions for D4. Honestly I really don't know a ton about D4 so I will go with what I've heard and read about teams and by their records and who they've played. My favorite is the team that I believe will make it to state. My contenders are teams that could just as easily make it to state and then my darkhorse or longshots are teams that could make a state run if things go their way.

Spooner Sectional

Favorite
Marshfield Columbus- All year long they have been one of the top teams and play in a fairly strong conference that should of prepared them for a strong tournament run.

Contenders
Clayton- I don't know a thing about Clayton but, they have the best record in the sectional and seemed to be the favorite among the majority of people.
Luck- Have been to state in recent years and have the Mortel twins and a super senior in Carson Giller.

Appleton North
Green Lake- Have lots of height and athleticism. Don't have a lot of depth but, what team in D4 does?

Contenders
Wauasau Newman- Was early season favorite to get to state and a lot of people seem to be sticking with them.

Darkhorse
Suring- Have the experience of being at state a couple years ago and still have the same coach and high scoring junior Chad Strehlow.

Onalaska
Mcdonell Central- Play in a very tough D3 conference and nearly everyone has them as the odds on favorite to get to state.

Darkhorse
North Crawford- I honestly don't see another team that sticks out to me but, North Crawford has best record in sectional.

Fort Atkinson
Randolph- Easily the best sectional of them all. Randolph will probably face their toughest competition in the sectional semi and final. They have been beating D1s all year and can't imagine a D4 beating them without getting some luck.

Contenders
Sheboygan County Christian- Only team to beat Randolph a year ago and return majority of their team.
Racine Lutheran- Another team that has been playing bigger schools all year long and should be battle tested for the playoffs.
Benton- Defending state champs seem to be clicking at the right time behind their two returning starters from a year ago.
Barnveld- Are led by one of the top players in D4 in Logan Johnson.

Darhorse
Catholic Central- Not a great record but, play in a conference with some of the best D2 and D3 teams in the state.

State Predictions
Green Lake over Marshfield Columbus- Green Lake is just to big and are very athletic.

Randolph over Mcdonell Central- Kyle Kelm will dominate.

Randolph over Green Lake- Randolph has defeated them once before this year and this game should be no different. Expect a bigger game from Kelm then what he had in their first matchup.

Just like years past D4 goes through Randolph and this year will be no different. If Randolph is upset I believe that it will happen at the sectional level and whoever comes out of the Fort Atkinson sectional will win state. The southeast sectional might be the toughest D4 sectional that their has ever been.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

3rd Round Team Rankings

With only a week to go until playoffs start this will probably be my last team rankings. After the state tournament its pretty obvious who the top teams are in the state and each division. I have finally gotten the chance to see some new teams play so my rankings are going to change a bit.



Overall Rankings
1. Madison East- Run the court extremely well and have a solid starting five that is as good as anyone in the state. Big man Marquis Mason is a difference maker on the inside whether he's scoring or not. Mason and Nimrod Hillard are one of the top combos in the state.
2. Madison Memorial- After watching them totally dominate Middleton the other night they really appeared poised to make a state run. Yes I did witness Sun Prairie beat Memorial but, I think right now Memorial is a better team.
3. Racine Park- Another team that runs the court very well. There top five guards really carry this team have seven guys that could probably average double figures.
4. Milwaukee Washington- Extremely athletic team that has the height and size to battle with anyone. Quevyn Winters is usually the best player on the court.
5. Sun Prairie- Have a lot of guys that can knock down the three point shot and handle themselves very well and have a lot of experience. Rely heavily on the three and when their not dropping their in trouble.
6. Milwaukee King- Another team with loads of talent that can go 12 deep and not lose a thing. Probably a year away from doing real damage.
7. Waunakee- After watching Waunakee struggle against Washington I believe they would really struggle against an athletic team that will pressure them. I still think they will beat Sun Prairie in the playoffs.
8. Oak Lawn Richards Ill- Run the court very very well and can score in a hurry. Knock down the three very well in transition.
9. Port Washington- Very disciplined team that has a star in Josh Gasser but, they don't need to rely on him every game to get the win.
10. Verona- Really seem to be peaking at the right time. Rebound very well and play great defense. Sam Karls appears to be that go to guy for them.
11. Waupun- Solid team overall that has the most impressive scorer that I've seen in Austin Armga.
12. Monroe- Just like every other Monroe team. They move extremely well without the ball, play very hard, and shoot the three very well. Unlike Monroe's of the past this team has some height.
13. Hamiliton Sussex- Another team that is extremely deep. Can go 12 deep with out losing much and every guy on the deep can hit the three point shot.
14. Appleton East- Live and die by the three and they shoot the three very well. Have some nice size with the 6'7 Mader brothers down low.
15. Valders- Great rebounding team that looks like a bunch of football players playing basketball, which is a good thing in this case. Pound the glass and run their offense very well.
16. Randolph- Great rebounding team. Very similar to Badgers in that they force teams to play at their speed and level. Not too mention they have 6'10 Kyle Kelm.
17. Middleton- Rebound very well with their overall team height advantage. If Matt Everson is on they could be trouble for some teams.
18. Beloit- Very athletic team with eight very solid players. If you pack it in can probably beat them though.
19. Monona Grove- Their two guards Zach Zweifel and Jackson Retzlaff can keep them in the game against anyone. They shoot the three and the mid range shot great and can get to the rim and score.
20. Lacrosse Logan- Big man Trevor Jorgenson is the thing that makes this team good. Very soft touch on the inside.
21. Wisconsin Dells- Shoot the three very well and big man Nate Gibson is a difference maker.
22. Baraboo- Have a couple stars but, just don't have the ball handlers to compete with the tough teams.
23. Waukesha West- Big man Ryan Solberg is a good player but, the rest of the team is a year away from really doing something.
24. Milwauke South- Very athletic team but, doesn't shoot real great and don't run much of an offense.
25. Reedsburg- Chad Mazur is a great great player but, they lack overall team talent. Jordan Van Cleave and Jon Stolte are solid role players.
HM
Green Lake

Division 1
1. Madison East
2. Madison Memorial
3. Racine Park
4. Milwaukee Washington
5. Sun Prairie
6. Milwaukee King
7. Waunakee
8.Verona
9. Sussex Hamiliton
10. Appleton East
HM
Middleton
Beloit

Division 2
1. Port Washington
2. Waupun
3. Monroe
4. Valders
5. Monona Grove
6. Wisconsin Dells
7. Reedsburg
8. West DePere- Very nice high low game but, lack overall athletic ability.
9. Shorewood- Lots of problems with this team. Take bad shots and don't rebound very well.
10. Mauston- Last D2 team left.

Division 3
1. New Lisbon- Not a good team but, are the only D3 team that I have seen play.

Divison 4
1. Randolph
2. Green Lake- Start three guys that are 6'4 or taller. Should be a team at state.

Well those are my ending rankings for the year. I'm somewhat disappointed that I didn't get the chance to see many teams outside of D1 but, I didn't make it to many tournaments which is a where I typically see the lower level teams. Can't wait for next week and the playoffs. In the next few days I'll do my final player rankings and then will have some of my tournament predictions.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Middleton bounces back with win against Beloit

This game didn't play out like you would of expected judging by past performances of the two teams. Just one night ago Middleton was routed by 40 points to a Madison Memorial team that seems to be peaking and roughly a week ago Beloit defeated Memorial by roughly 13 points. Judging by those two outcomes you would expect a blow out and that's what we got, early on anyway. The only problem was it was Middleton blowing out Beloit. I came into the game excited to get the chance to see Beloit play given that Beloit had already defeated the two top teams in the conference and state in Madison East and Madison Memorial and seemed guaranteed a place at state after defeating Verona for a second time, their top contender in their sectional. Unfortunately Beloit wasn't anywhere near as impressive as I had expected.

Early on Middleton played a sagging man to man defense and really packed the inside and didn't allow Beloit to penetrate. Beloit seemed content to just take the outside and they weren't falling, frankly they weren't even getting close, air balling a handful of shots. Beloit seemed to have the same defensive philosophy as Middleton but, the only difference was that Middleton was knocking down the open shots that they were given. Middleton had a 15-7 first quarter lead. In the second quarter the outside shots stopped falling for Middleton but, that's when they took advantage of their superior height and were able to get second and third chances. Beloit continued to struggled on the offensive end as they were down 31-14 at half. Third quarter Middleton continued their dominance as they were up 46-28. Late in the third quarter and early in the fourth Middleton's star 6'2 senior Matt Everson came alive using his ball handling skills to get to the rim or get fouled, where he was automatic at the line. It appeared Middleton was ready to go into cruise control when Beloit finally came alive. Beloit seemed to be sparked by a technical foul on Everson, after he did alittle too much trash talking after a basket and then a missed dunk by 6'6 junior Ian Joyce. It seemed Beloit's best offense was putting their head down and just driving to the rim and either getting fouled or making the basket. It seemed throughout the fourth Beloit would make the shot every time and get fouled every time. In the end the calming free throw shooting of Everson helped seal the 59-53 win for Middleton.

Top Players
Matt Everson 6'2 senior Middleton- Had a very solid game making a couple three pointers, posting smaller defenders, and making his free throws. Everson could get anywhere he wanted on the court.
Michael Owen 6'7 senior Middleton- Moves extremely well for a big man and did a nice job of handling Beloit's pressure and was able to knock down the outside shot.
KJ Evans 6'3 senior Beloit- Didn't have a great game but, finally arrived in the fourth quarter scoring 12 points. Just a beast going to the rim and scoring baskets while drawing the contact and getting fouled.

Box Score
Middleton- Everson 22 Owen 14 Shane Adler 8 Corey Nelson 8 Joyce 4 Skylar Yaktus 3 Seth Coyne 0 Connor Wipfli 0 Aaron Katsuma 0 Sonny Bavery 0 Charlie Opitz 0
Beloit- Evans 12 Ahmad Shamsid-Dean 10 Sharod Stone 9 Dennis Crosby 7 Leketreius Broomfield 6 Mike Weston 6 Robert Douglas 3 Cameron Roegner 0

Despite Beloit's disappointing performance I still think that they are the top team in their sectional and have the best chance of getting to state. Their sectional just isn't that strong and like I said earlier they have already defeated the top contender twice this year. It is tough to beat a team three times in a year though so I'm leaving it up to a coin toss between Verona and Beloit as to who will get to state.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Madison Memorial destroys Middleton

I hadn't seen Middleton since their first Big Eight game of the year and they were tied in third place in the conference so I figured that I'd go down and see them play Madison Memorial to see if they had improved as much as their record showed. Unfortunately this wasn't a good night for Middleton as Memorial completely dominated this game from start to finish. Memorial really turned up the defensive pressure playing man to man defense nearly the entire game and really flustered Middleton into numerous turnovers and some very difficult shots. On the other end Memorial was going to the offensive boards with reckless abandenment, seeming to get at least three chances at the hoop on every trip down the court until the ball went through the hoop.

Memorial really appears to be peaking at the right time as they used a eight man rotation moving players in and out without missing a beat and didn't have to rely on any one player as four different players scored in double digits and thats with their second leading scorer 6'2 senior Tre Creamer only scoring six points. Memorial jumped out to the 20-3 first quarter lead, 35-12 halftime score, and the a 57-22 after three. Memorial rested their starters nearly the entire fourth quarter as they cruised to a 76-34 win.

Top Players (sorry Middleton you didn't get anyone)
Junior Lomomba the 6'3 super soph appears to be fully healed from his wrist injury and looked very impressive in the game. Lomomba scored 10 points in the first half displaying a variety of moves included a very nice spin move and bank in shot from the block. Lomomba has a very solid post game but, is just as effective from the outside. Lomomba had a nice highligh dunk with a nice little reverse dunk in the fourth quarter. Memorial star 6'3 senior Vander Blue didn't have a great game, like I said but, he really didn't need to in this one. Blue really went to the glass extremely hard and was rebounding with a purpose. Blue only had 11 points but, was probably close to double digit rebounds and did a nice job of guarding Middleton star 6'2 senior Matt Everson when he was on him. Another player that appears to be fully back from injurty is freshmen 5'11 Brendan Ortiz. Ortiz doesn't appear to have the same elevation as he did before his leg injury but, appears to be comfortable on the court. in particular shooting the ball from the outside, which should be a nice boast to a team that at times struggles from the outside. Ortiz also looks very good handling the ball and I am very interested to watch this kid progressive throughout the next four years. 6'4 junior Tre Burnette appears to have regain his confidence to shoot as he knocked down a pair of threes mid game and then dominated in garbage time. One last kid that has really begain impressing me is 6'2 junior Jordan Fredrick, who I really questioned him starting the first time I saw him starting but, he appears to be more comfortable playing with the other starters and has really developed a nice midrange shot.

Box Score
Memorial- Lomomba 15 Burnette 13 Blue 11 Ortiz 11 Jamar Morris 9 Fredrick 6 Brian Nkemnji 6 Creamer 5 Miles Chamberlain 0 Josh Horman 0 Karl Klatt 0 Alvin Olson 0 Eric Fruhling 0 Steve Scharch 0 Ed Kluender 0
Middleton- Corey Nelson 6 Sonny Bavery 6 Everson 5 Charlie Opitz 5 Ian Joyce 4 Shane Adler 3 Michael Owen 3 Connor Stubbe 2 Seth Coyne 0 Connor Wipfli 0 Will O'Brien 0 Aaron Katsuma 0 Skylar Yaktus 0

After watching Memorial tonight I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to Memorial take down East next week and also to see Memorial make another run to state.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Randolph shows D4 dominance

For the past 10 years or so Randolph has been the class of division four year in and year out and every so often there is a team or teams that people believe can challenge Randolph for that title. Typically it ends the same Randolph shows their dominance and every so often, an extremely rare occurrence, a team will take that title for a year from Randolph but, the next year Randolph is right back at the top. Well on Monday night Green Lake was the team many people believed that this was a team that could defeated Randolph but, after the game Randolph was still sitting as the top team.

Watching warm ups I thought that Green Lake had a legit chance as they start three guys that are 6'4 and taller that all move very well and look comfortable on the court. Like many D4 teams I questioned their depth though outside of those three players. Randolph didn't look like anything impressive in warm ups but, that didn't mean much for a Randolph team and they did have 6'10 senior Kyle Kelm, who is a shoe in for all state and maybe even a first teamer.

From the tip this game was extremely intense and both teams seemed very excited for this game. Green Lake game out gunning hit a pair of threes, while Randolph looked to Kelm to do the bulk of their scoring. At the end of one quarter the score was 10-10 but, Green Lake big man 6'5 sophomore Matt Van Scyoc had two fouls. In the second quarter Randolph stepped up the defense which flustered Green Lake a bit and they started to turn the ball over. Randolph struggled to find their range but, absolutely dominated the boards on both ends which allowed them second chances which the converted on or where fouled. Half time score was 23-17. Third quarter was much the same as Randolph continued to get second and third chances while Green Lake couldn't get the ball to stay in the rim. Randolph extended their lead to 10 at the end of third and midway through the fourth the lead had grown to 14 before Green Lake began taking a large amount of threes and started to hit a few. In the end Randolph hit their free throws and got the 44-34 win. Lead would of been more but, Randolph struggled from the free throw line and couldn't put the game away early.

Top Players
Kyle Kelm 6'10 senior Randolph- Did a great job of finding an opening at the free throw line against the Green Lake zone and getting to the rim and scoring.
Ben Syvertson 6'2 senior Randolph- This was the guy that probably won the game for Randolph. Did a great job going hard to the rim and rebounding and was also one of the few players for Randolph that would attack the rim off the bounce. Also guarded Green Lake's top player Brad Brooks.
Brad Brooks 6'5 senior Green Lake- Big guy that moves very well. Struggled a bit but, you could tell this kid was a star and really looked like a ball player. Did a nice job of guarding Kelm in man to man defense.

Box Score starter in Italics
Randolph- Kelm 19 Syvertson 9 TJ Huizenga 6 Brian Kampstra 5 Zach Reuter 4 Mike Thoreson 0 Jay Fish 0 Brandon Zimmerman 0
Green Lake- Brooks 10 Matt Neubauer 6 Conor Mc Elligott 6 Curtis Morgan 5 Matt Van Scyoc 5 Alex Van Lanen 2 Nate Polcyn 0 Noah Polcyn 0

I hontesly expected Randolph to win this game far easier then what they did but, then I have to remember that Green Lake is one of the top teams and have a very good chance to get to state. I'm still taking Randolph to win state but, I'm not sure it will be as easy as I previous had thought.